A Case for College Football Promotion Relegation
(The Photo by Gene Gallin on Unsplash)
Yes, your favorite college football team is a semipro sports team that rents its colors and logo from your alma mater.
This summer, the conference realignment merry-go-round is just another step in college football’s evolution into becoming a professional league that franchises the names of state-sanctioned universities.
Bruce Feldman, a national college football writer for The Athletic, labeled the drama this summer as “conference consolidation.” He’s right. Men in suits make backroom business deals like a bad spin-off series of Succession.
But we all see what’s coming; a mini-version of the National Football League, American sports and entertainment’s shining light of profitability. That means two conferences–likely mega versions of the Big Ten and SEC–with a 16-team playoff and one winner at the end.
For many college football fans, these conference shuffles feel like a betrayal of the history and regionality that made the sport genuine. And for actual student-athletes that aren’t making money on local car commercials, playing a soccer game or track and field event 10,000 miles away on a Wednesday night when you have a term paper due on Thursday is absurd.
But there’s no going back.
Here’s a sample of the college football’s faux-business behavior:
Division I athletics generated almost $16 billion in revenue per year.
48 to 64 percent of athletic department revenue comes from football.
Athletic departments are separately run entities from the universities.
Success on the field is a dynamic marketing tool for universities. Just look at what’s happened at Alabama since Nick Saban arrived.
Until recently, their “employees” couldn’t earn income using their name, image, and likeness.
The money flows freely from media conglomerates while the university boards solely look at the dollar signs instead of what it means for their students. Football is dragging the NCAA and college athletics toward a professional two-conference system with blatant disregard for the consequences.
Well, if we treat college football like a professional league, I think it’s time fans demand a professional system.
Enter promotion-relegation.
What’s Promotion Relegation?
Promotion-relegation is the tiered sporting structure where leagues “promote” and “relegate” teams based on the previous season’s performance.
Most commonly used in soccer, promotion-relegation allows competition to remain consistent across the season while providing opportunities for smaller clubs to compete with the best.
England is home to the Premier League, the SEC of global soccer. Every season, the three worst-performing teams get sent down to the lower league (called The Championship), and the three best-performing teams from The Championship get sent up to play in the Premier League.
Lost? Don’t worry. Promotion-relegation is closer to home than you think.
College football had a similar way of rewarding the best-performing teams at the end of the season–the BCS.
For 15 years, the Bowl Championship Series selected the best teams from the regular season and “promoted” them to play in a special one-off game or even the championship game. This was conducted at first by a computer system and later by a committee.
It’s easy to forget that a generation ago, schools rarely played outside of their geography unless by special invitation. Hell, two decades ago, the national champion was appointed based on the number of games won, which is exactly how the Premier League rewards their champion.
So, before you scoff at soccer for its lack of playoff purity, remember that it’s only recently that college football decided on a champion in that “American” format.
But wait, there’s more.
The advantages of promotion-relegation:
Creates competition for every game of the season, no matter your record.
The best teams play the best teams every week. (Sorry, no week ten matchup vs Alcorn St.).
Smaller teams can prove themselves against “blue bloods” based on performance, not invitations, committees, or algorithms.
It punishes mediocrity even if you have a winning history.
The current best teams get the best TV deals (looking at you, Florida State)
Burnley is a small-town English soccer club that’s risen the ranks of promotion to play in the Premier League. (Photo by Nathan Rogers on Unsplash)
Why Promotion Relegation for College Football?
What’s wrong with college football? The viewership numbers, merchandise sales, and season ticket renewals have never been better. There’s no need to change the system.
The problem is parity.
The NFL works so well because it has a strict strategy that creates competition. Yes, there can be dynasties, but that is more about the luck of getting a once-in-a-generation quarterback. In essence, the NFL wants every season for fans to believe, “This could be our year.”
For the past decade, college football has been dominated by a minority of behemoth programs.
From recruiting, alumni boosters, state-of-the-art facilities, and NIL deals, the difference between a “blue blood” (your Michigans, Alabamas, USCs, and Notre Dames) and mid-tier schools (your South Carolinas, Purdues, Arizonas) is like they’re not playing even the same division (the money is already doing the work for us).
For example, in 2022, Texas’ athletic department earned $239.3 million, while in-state rival Texas Tech earned $81 million.
And this is just the disparity in the “Power Five” conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC, and SEC).
The move to a larger playoff system will help but at the expense of bowl games, which once served as the crown of the season for programs. Today, nobody cares if you made it to the Farmer Fred Bowl Presented by Velveeta Cheese. If the playoff final is decided by who wins the Michigan vs. Ohio State game and SEC Championship every year, why should fans care what happens in week eight between Indiana and Minnesota?
If college football wants to be the NFL, then they need a mechanism for parity so that every game will matter and get watched by average viewers. Otherwise, FOX, ESPN, and NBC might as well make a Super League and leave the rest to Apple+ streaming.
But that’s a different case for a different article.
Unfortunately, college football won’t be able to incorporate two of the most-effective parity tactics the NFL uses. College football can’t have a salary cap (because they don’t pay players), nor will they be able to maneuver rosters through a high-school draft.
But through promotion-relegation, college football can keep everything status quo while adding parity that makes every NFL game a must-watch TV.
Read More: 7 Leadership Lessons from Top Gun
How Will Promotion Relegation for College Football Work?
Step 1: Remove and Reset the Regional Leagues
In this experiment, I’m the NCAA commissioner pitching my promotion-relegation plan. My first move is to remove division one college football from the league system and restore the regional leagues. That way, the other sports programs won’t have the travel costs and still maintain historic regionalism ties (college basketball’s regional system works better because of the power of March Madness).
Now that college football can be separated and identified for what it is (a semipro sports league), we can get to work.
Step 2: Build the Pyramid
There are 125 FCS division one football teams in the country. To create a pyramid, teams will be divided into five divisions based on their win-loss record in the past ten seasons. An additional filter will boost wins if they are in a traditional power five conference (assuming strength of schedule).
In this use case, we’ll showcase the first two divisions.
NCAA Premier League Presented by Tostitos (Tier-One)
Alabama
Auburn
Baylor
Cincinnati
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia
Iowa
LSU
Miami
Michigan
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
TCU
Texas A&M
USC
Utah
Washington
Wisconsin
NCAA Championship Presented by Allstate (Tier-Two)
Arizona State
Boise State
Duke
Florida
Kansas State
Kentucky
Louisville
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
NC State
North Carolina
Northwestern
San Diego State
South Carolina
Stanford
Tennessee
Texas
UCF
UCLA
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington State
West Virginia
Step 2: Weighted Wins
Now, there are only 12 college football games in a season, which puts a bit of randomness in this model. And since promotion-relegation destroys the notion of regional rivalries (which is already happening), we’ll need to keep those alive.
So, each team will play 10 “regular season” games versus opponents in their league. Each win counts for three points. There will be a buy week embedded into each schedule, and every team will have two “rivalry slots” (which can be renewed for five, ten, or twenty years). The rivalry slots are worth one point if the rival is in a lower division, two if they are in the same division, and three if they are in an above division.
So, Alabama selecting Alabama A&M in their second rivalry spot would leave potential points on the board rather than committing to Georgia. Also, if division two Washington State upsets division one Washington, the bragging rights would be even sweeter.
Step 3: Postseason
The Premier League will enact an eight-team playoff like the current college football strategy.
The eight teams will be selected by their total points at the end of the season, with a point differential as a tie-breaker. The team with the worst record in the Premier League will be relegated to The Championship.
Meanwhile, The Championship will conduct a smaller version of the playoffs between the four best teams from the season, with the winner promoted to the Premier League for the next season.
This four-team playoff will trickle down to the below three tiers, with one team being promoted and relegated per season and division.
The gift of the promotional playoffs is that TV networks can easily fill their “bowl season” slots with the playoffs (and they can even keep the bowl titles if they want). This system has 19 highly-competitive postseason games throughout the holiday season. Alums and neutrals will be glued to their couches instead of the passive comatose watching that currently plagues the time slots.
College Football Promotion Relegation Simulation
Now, with our pyramid and structure set. Let’s play out what would happen theoretically in the College Football Premier League based on results from 2022.
2022 College Football Premier League Final Standings
Georgia (Champion)
TCU
Michigan
Ohio State
Alabama
Penn State
USC
Washington
Utah
Clemson
Oregon
LSU
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Iowa
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Florida
Michigan State
Miami
Texas A&M
Auburn
Oklahoma (Relegated)
It looks like Washington just qualified for the playoffs in a tight race with former conference rivals USC and Utah. After a competitive playoff, Georgia reigned supreme as the inaugural College Football Premier League Champions.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, Florida, Michigan State, Miami, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Oklahoma fought it out in a heated relegation battle. Unfortunately, the new Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables, could not fill the legacy of his predecessor. The Sooners are the first team to be relegated from the Premier League.
And after a four-team Championship playoff between Tennessee, Kansas State, Mississippi State, and UCLA, the Volunteers earned promotion to play in the Premier League in 2023. In a dark turn, Northwestern will start its season without a head coach in League One Presented by The Home Depot (tier three), amid a slew of controversies.
Promotion Relegation Can Save College Football
The regional ties and borders that have held together college football for over a century are crumbling. Through promotion-relegation, college football can officially retire from its posturing of being an amateur league and embrace its professionalism.
And the storylines will be better than ever.
Can Georgia do it on a rainy November night in Madison?
Will upstarts like Boise State, San Diego State, and Tulane climb the ladder to compete every week with the game’s greatest teams?
Will Netflix create a docu-series about Texas falling to League One after decades of dominance?
Will the backup QB at Alabama seek more snaps by transferring to a Championship team?
College football can be better than ever with promotion and relegation.
And don’t tell me that these power-hungry commissioners and presidents can’t get it done.
Because they’re definitely making it up as they go.
What are your thoughts about promotion-relegation for college football? What did I miss? Is there a better system to save the heart of college football?
Comment below or reach out to us here.